Is AI really stealing our jobs??

Hey,

I'm Sergio Pereira, and this is the Remote Work newsletter 👋

Last week I fleshed out my principles and processes to hire and manage my remote teams around the world, from the podcast interview with Aakash Gupta

Today, I'm replying to a question that I'm getting asked more and more in recent months:

• "Will AI tools replace Software Developers?"

This applies to remote workers, of course, but more broadly to any Software Developer. In fact, it probably applies to anyone who works a digital job.

This generative AI wave has taken the world by storm, and many companies have launched products whose marketing collateral promises to replace a certain professional category entirely, just like Devin promised to replace Software Developers.

Today, I'm using historical data to show you all what I believe will happen to Software Engineers in the coming years.

Let's start with the counter intuitive case of ATM machines. When ATM machines were invented, all market analysts predicted that the bank teller job would disappear within a few years. And ATM machines did replace several functions that used to be done by (human) bank tellers, but not all. As a result, ATM machines made it cheaper than ever to open new bank branches, which accelerated market growth. And this caused the net number of bank teller jobs grew massively after ATM machines were invented:

As Gergely Orosz puts it in his tweet, some jobs were actually replaced by past technological breakthroughs (eg: elevator operator). But others were actually enhanced (eg: accountants). Indeed, innovation can both reduce and increase jobs:

I actually dug into the data for the Excel invention, and it's impact on accountant jobs. Data shows that the net number of jobs with title "Accountant" grew massively, and that new job titles appeared, such as "Management analysts" and "Financial managers". However, other jobs disappeared, such as "Bookkeeper":

This resulted in a reduction of the jobs that required crunching the numbers (that's what excel is best at), and an increase in new jobs that required analysing and doing further work with the crunched numbers (analysts, etc).

I see a clear parallel with what tools like Cursor, Github Copilot, ChatGPT, etc will do to the Software Developer job and beyond. Jobs that require simply writing code will be exposed to being mostly replaced by these tools, if anything our scope of work will be reduced to defining requirements and reviewing output.

However, the net number of jobs created could be vastly superior, since suddenly the barriers to produce software are lower than ever. Just like excel reduced the task of crunching thousands of lines of numbers from a few hours manual work into a few second automation. Cursor is doing the exact same thing to writing software code, used to be a few hours of typing, now it's often just a tab key and boom, the code is there.

I think this will lower the cost of producing software, and that will create a huge explosion in the number of startups. This will likely mimic what happened to bank tellers after the ATM machine was invented. An explosion in the number of startups will create a net growth in software developer jobs. We won't be writing so much code, but we'll do lots of technical documentation to be included in the prompt, we'll be reviewing the AI's code, and we'll be doing all the interpersonal functional activities that are needed for a product to be delivered successfully.

I'm an optimist, and I'm very bullish. I think we're living the most fascinating time ever. Lot's of opportunity happening right now.

I'm seeing this startup explosion from the frontlines. As a Fractional CTO I'm having more clients than I ever had in the past, and I'm hiring at most of them. As usual, DM me if any of these opportunities interests you:

Opportunities to work with me

• React Native Engineer - 2 people to build a fixed scope app for now, but will likely evolve into fractional retainer after that.

• React.js Engineer - To build the web functionality of the above mentioned app. Also project based for now.

• Backend Engineer (Node.js + AWS) - To build the whole backend of the app from scratch. Also project based for now.

• Python Engineer - Lots of experience with API integrations and data flows at decent volume is required. Experience with AWS is a nice plus. Experience in fintech or risk scoring more broadly would be great too. Fractional at first, but should evolve into full time soon.

• AI Engineer - With experience building AI agents and genAI-enabled features. Experience in fintech or risk scoring more broadly would be great too. Fractional at first, but should evolve into full time soon.

• Smart Contract Engineer - Especially EVM networks, so decent Solidity experience required. Experience with Typescript would be great too. Fractional.

• Mobile Engineer (iOS) - To take over the development of a native app. Fractional. 

If you're interested in any of these roles, simply drop me your CV/linkedin and a quick intro paragraph, as a reply to this newsletter email (or a DM on X/Linkedin). 

In case you're looking for a new job, have a look into JobsCopilot and the Remote Jobs Braintrust. Hundreds of people are using my tools to find jobs, and I'm happy to help as many people as possible.

Thanks for reading this newsletter until the end. You can read all past editions here. Make sure to share it with your friends and colleagues so they can read it too.

See you next Friday,

Sergio Pereira, 
Startup CTO & Remote Work Lover