Why offices are getting empty + Remote job openings

Hey,

I'm Sergio Pereira, and this is the Remote Work newsletter 👋

Last week I told you my predictions for 2025, on technology, startups and remote work. There's good and bad stuff happening, and I feel there's lots of opportunity up for the grabs.

Today let's use facts to dismiss the mainstream narrative that remote work is over and that all companies have returned to the office. That's false.

The reality is that offices are emptier than ever, as millions work remotely every day. As of today, 32% of all offices in San Francisco doesn't have a lease, and the US average is 20%. I estimate that about half office seats are empty on a normal work day. Those people are working remotely.

However, we occasionally have market studies unveiling the actual truth: Office occupancy is at it's lowest level ever. Like this recent study by Moody's and Axios:

In San Francisco, the epicenter of the tech startup culture, one third of all offices doesn't have a lease. And the trend is growing rapidly, as per this recent study from the Financial times.

I've added 2 different legit sources because all media buzz tells us that remote work is dead and all companies returned to the office. Nope, that's false, offices are emptier than ever.

And mind you that both of these studies are about US offices without a lease. These vacancy figures would be much higher if we'd also count in the offices that have a lease but are not being used, or those being used below their capacity. My finger-in-the-air estimate would be that over 50% of office seats in major US cities are empty on a normal work day. Probably a similar trend is happening in most other major cities around the world.

The future of work is happening right now, and let me tell you my views on it:

1/ Remote work

There's no escape. Despite many companies having returned to the office in recent years, there are also many others that continued working remotely. It's estimated that over 25 million people in the US work remote.

For many Big Tech companies this actually means hybrid work cultures, with some days in the office and some days at home. But for startups it means fully remote, since most of those companies don't even have a physical office.

There's also reports of companies laying off employees in HCOL areas (such as US cities), and hiring the same roles abroad (such as India or Mexico). That's the case with many startups and scaleups, but also big tech companies like Google, or even non-tech gigantic companies like the UnitedHealth Group. While in such enterprises many of these roles abroad are still office based, it's a good indicator of a broader trend that US companies are hiring people in LCOL areas, many of which are indeed remote.

2/ Return to the office was never about productivity

So, if so many well accomplished large companies, as well as growing startups are remote, it means that remote work isn't a blocker to innovation, collaboration and overall business success.

This makes it clear that most companies pushing people back to the office do it for a mix of reasons, none of them related to performance or productivity.

Many enterprise companies have massive sunk cost already invested in decades-long office leases, they move back in since they're paying anyway.

Many of these companies also have a managerial culture that enjoys feeling in control over their employees. Many middle managers struggle in remote work because they don't "see" people, and they're constantly booking meetings with everyone.

Besides that, many big tech companies are reducing headcount, and they figured that forcing people to move closer to the office and to commute everyday is actually a good trigger for many to resign on their own. I think this is lame, since the best employees are the ones leaving first, as they have better employment options.

This last point is the very reason why we hear more buzz about return to the office mandates, than we hear about companies that thrive while working remote. Those returning are the ones that have something to announce, and they do it with a big buzz.

3/ Massive opportunity for Startup Founders

This is a unique time for people who decide to create their own company. There's never been a time of such abundance for Startup Founders. The cost savings of not having an office, hiring remote employees in LCOL areas, coupled with the powerful AI tools that have flooded the market in recent years. Founders can build a product and make their first revenue faster than ever. Also, they can build a long lasting remote team for a fraction of the costs of salaries plus office space in the Bay Area.

There's a record number of boostrapped startups, meaning that many Founders don't need to raise VC funding to pay the costs of growing their business. This fact alone is a huge unlock, since lack of funding would kill most early stage startups, many of them even before starting.

The fact that so many people and companies operate remotely has also dismissed the stigma that used to exist in the past. I remember that 10 years ago I'd need to fly to London, or San Francisco, or wherever clients and investors' offices were. Nowadays is table stakes to jump on a zoom call with anyone anywhere, and this is especially impactful for B2B startups, which now enjoy much lower sales/marketing costs early on.

4/ Massive opportunity for employees too

You see layoffs and return to the office mandates and you might get anxious. However, I see huge opportunities for employees too.

And I'm not just talking about employment and salary. Certainly, people in LCOL areas can get remote jobs in high salary regions (my case for the past 10 years), as well as many people in those high salary regions can move to LCOL areas and improve their lifestyle. I reckon most of those roles are competitive to get.

However, I think the biggest opportunity is that the cost of having side projects decreased massively. You no longer need to trade off between keeping your job and building that new thing that you've been thinking of. Using AI tools and/or some offshore contractors, you can spend a fraction of the time and money you'd spend in the past.

This is massive for learning, since you can build projects that will increase your odds of landing a high paying remote job, or simply get a promotion in your job. It's also massive for networking, since you can build in public or open source and get attention from future employers or clients.

But it's a great opportunity for earning as well. You can build a product that gains client adoption and becomes your future growing startup. I also see many people doing this as contractors for others, as in moonlighting on the side of their full time job as they build someone else's product.

I'm an optimist, I have the privilege of working with exciting early stage US startups every day. All of them are fully remote, and my teams are composed by people spread across all continents, working from home. I love it, and since I'm actively hiring a bunch of roles, I'm adding them below. Reply to this email if you're interested:

Opportunities in my teams

• Backend Engineer (Python), for ETL data flows, LLM integrations, and automation at large - Fully remote - Fractional

• AI Engineer, to build AI Agents and RAG pipelines - Fully remote - Project based

• Backend Engineer (.Net), ideally with some experience in blockchain architectures - Remote in Europe/LATAM - Fractional

• Mobile Engineer (iOS) - Remote in Europe/LATAM - Fractional

• Mobile Engineer (Android) - Remote in Europe/LATAM - Fractional

• Smart Contract Engineer (Solidity) - Fully remote - Fractional

• QA Engineer (mobile apps and crypto wallet flows) - Fractional

If you're interested in any of these roles, simply drop me your CV/linkedin and a quick intro paragraph, as a reply to this newsletter email (or a DM on X/Linkedin). 

In case you're looking for a new job, have a look into JobsCopilot and the Remote Jobs Braintrust. Hundreds of people are using my tools to find jobs, and I'm happy to help as many people as possible.

Thanks for reading this newsletter until the end. You can read all past editions here. Make sure to share it with your friends and colleagues so they can read it too. 

See you next Friday,

Sergio Pereira, 
Startup CTO & Remote Work Lover